To be clear, the decision means little beyond political
point scoring. If the decision were to go against the government, logic would
suggest Mrs. May – and possibly Mr. Johnson – would look to hide a veiled
smile. That is, of course, assuming the decision could stop Brexit… which it
won’t.
In reality this case is about authority and seeming to be in
control. Mrs. May – who has not won a General Election – has ascended to a
cursed throne. Cursed for many reasons, but perhaps most notably because nobody
expected Brexit, and by extension nobody seems to have planned for it.
Why else would May use such a meaningless statement – Brexit
means Brexit – as the slogan of her new regime? It’s very utterance (the
slogan) occurs only when a question should not or cannot be answered.
Let us assume the opposite for a moment – that there is a plan.
Would the new Prime Minister keep it to herself and her cabinet, slyly avoiding
questions and reiterating meaningless slogans? Or would she boldly deliver her
plan, reassuring thee public of capability of Whitehall and proudly,
confidently putting herself before any challenge?
This case is an attempt – partly – to expose the emperor’s
lack of clothing. There are more nuances to it than that (it is hard to ignore
the investment manager at the centre of all of this) but ultimately this is why
Mrs. May will continue to fight. Set aside claims of negotiating position; May
must appear strong in a time of crisis.
She must take a commanding position, rally the troops and
all the rest of it. She must also recognise she may occupy the office of Prime
Minister for what is – relatively – a short period of time. Brexit may well be
Mrs. May’s only legacy, and as such failure is not an option.
Will this supreme court case lead to failure? Not in itself,
but it may force the government to reveal their hand, or lack thereof, and
provide us with a standard by which to judge success or failure. Mrs. May could
fail to secure anything she wanted in the Brexit negotiations, but this failure
could be disguised as a success provided the starting point remains unknown.
This is the long-term risk for Mrs. May. The short-term risk
is the potential revelation that even she does not know the starting point. It
would undermine her authority and her government, and would linger over her
premiership perhaps indefinitely.
This case is a pantomime, but no one is shouting, “he’s
behind you!” Instead, we might soon realise no one, not even the performers on
stage, have any idea where ‘he’ is.
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