Leviathan

This week marked the closest Theresa May has been to being removed as prime minister since her disastrous general election result in June. A now infamously bad speech, cabinet infighting and a general perception of her being weak have made her departure, in the eyes of many, inevitable, even if for the time being not immediately forthcoming.

Depending on who you ask (or, depending on the interviewee’s political leaning) the problem facing Mrs. May and the Conservative party in general is either Brexit, or a lack of clear, coherent and compassionate domestic policy. The discrepancy in reasoning is caused merely by respective actors emphasising their strengths – the issue is the same regardless: there is a lack of direction in Theresa May’s government.

This, in the opinion of many, will be fatal, if for no other reason than cool-headed reliability to do a task they have been asked to do is proudly promoted by many Conservatives as the modus operandi of the Tory party. A lack of direction, and by extension an inability to effectively deal with the tasks at hand, all serve to damage the party doubly as they damage the Conservatives the government and the brand.

This is why Theresa May is most certainly a dead woman walking. The very fact she is still walking is because the crisis facing the Tory party is systemic, rather than a sickness held in the head. The most likely candidate to replace her is Boris Johnson, eluding again to the behemoth of Brexit that is crushing this government and, it must be said, most of Westminster. An election of Boris as leader of would almost certainly smother some of the Brexit fires, but would leave other flames to burn out of control. It would also reinforce the perception that the Tories are out of touch; according to YouGov, he has never been more unpopular.¹

In what is now becoming a list of problems, the Conservatives find themselves with another: Mrs. May can’t lead but must, whilst Mr. Johnson can lead be must not. If we were to muse as to how to solve this problem, one might take it as a joke when I refer to a snake, but it is not. A leviathan in the context of history is one that unites various warring tribes through its singular might. Politicians might be snakes, but are any leviathans?

The apparent consensus is no, but that’s hardly creative thinking. Brexit has caused all of this mess, and perhaps it can fix it. Mrs. May faces an increasingly difficult task in leaving the European Union, whilst Brexiteers breathe down her throat, and the masses of young Remainers at home flock to Jeremy Corbyn. As a political move, calling a second referendum on Brexit may solve all three of these problems.

Assuming that, given the chance to vote again, a coalition of mobilised youth, terrified metropolitan elite and regretful middle-Englanders might reverse the result, Mrs. May may save her premiership. Talk of Brexit would be over, allowing her to focus on a strong domestic agenda and give her party an important sense of direction. Equally, it would cripple the hard Brexit wing of the party – including Mr. Johnson – through a shift to the centre ground. The result would be alienation for Boris and co.

Finally, Mr. Corbyn (whom I have spoken little about) would have his wind knocked out of his sails as his legions of supporters would, in a manner of speaking, side with the enemy. To put it another way, Mrs. May would be offering the young something only a prime minister could offer, and the young would be hard pressed to refuse.

As a solution, of course, it is not perfect. There would be accusations of old wounds opening (though, I would retort, that said wounds never closed) and it is certainly short-termist – the problem of Europe would continue to plague the Conservatives for years to come. But as I have written previously, this will be the case regardless.²

Though these are not the major flaw with this plan. The major flaw is the assumption that the result would be reversed. Just as Mr. Cameron did before her, losing the referendum would result in Mrs. May’s resignation. But so too will a ‘no deal,’ outcome, or simply a strategy of waiting it out. Mrs. May is on a collision course with failure, and only a risk might rectify that. If ever there was a time for bold and brave (if not necessarily strong and stable) leadership, let it be now. Call a second referendum.

¹ https://yougov.co.uk/opi/browse/Boris_Johnson

² http://stuartmmills.blogspot.co.uk/2017/07/how-do-you-solve-problem-like-brexit.html

A badly staged pantomime.

The battle raging in the supreme court regarding who has the authority to trigger Article 50 is more interesting as a pantomime than as a serious legal battle. Fitting, for December.

To be clear, the decision means little beyond political point scoring. If the decision were to go against the government, logic would suggest Mrs. May – and possibly Mr. Johnson – would look to hide a veiled smile. That is, of course, assuming the decision could stop Brexit… which it won’t.

In reality this case is about authority and seeming to be in control. Mrs. May – who has not won a General Election – has ascended to a cursed throne. Cursed for many reasons, but perhaps most notably because nobody expected Brexit, and by extension nobody seems to have planned for it.

Why else would May use such a meaningless statement – Brexit means Brexit – as the slogan of her new regime? It’s very utterance (the slogan) occurs only when a question should not or cannot be answered.

Let us assume the opposite for a moment – that there is a plan. Would the new Prime Minister keep it to herself and her cabinet, slyly avoiding questions and reiterating meaningless slogans? Or would she boldly deliver her plan, reassuring thee public of capability of Whitehall and proudly, confidently putting herself before any challenge?

This case is an attempt – partly – to expose the emperor’s lack of clothing. There are more nuances to it than that (it is hard to ignore the investment manager at the centre of all of this) but ultimately this is why Mrs. May will continue to fight. Set aside claims of negotiating position; May must appear strong in a time of crisis.

She must take a commanding position, rally the troops and all the rest of it. She must also recognise she may occupy the office of Prime Minister for what is – relatively – a short period of time. Brexit may well be Mrs. May’s only legacy, and as such failure is not an option.

Will this supreme court case lead to failure? Not in itself, but it may force the government to reveal their hand, or lack thereof, and provide us with a standard by which to judge success or failure. Mrs. May could fail to secure anything she wanted in the Brexit negotiations, but this failure could be disguised as a success provided the starting point remains unknown.

This is the long-term risk for Mrs. May. The short-term risk is the potential revelation that even she does not know the starting point. It would undermine her authority and her government, and would linger over her premiership perhaps indefinitely.

This case is a pantomime, but no one is shouting, “he’s behind you!” Instead, we might soon realise no one, not even the performers on stage, have any idea where ‘he’ is.