Why I (Currently) Believe a No-Deal is Unlikely

Theresa May started her premiership with a lie. Or, at least, an implied mistruth. Whilst many debated the content of the statement, “No deal is better than a bad deal,” almost everyone missed the point. Politically, for Theresa May, no-deal is the worst deal.

This is why I believe a no-deal outcome is (currently) unlikely to occur.

Let us step back a moment and unpack this situation, because it does not take much pontificating to realise no-deal is not universally politically bad. In the short-term, such a scenario would satisfy the hard Brexiteers (though I stress in the short-term; in the long-term it is less clear how beneficial no-deal would be to this sect) and may extend political capital. Additionally, if the chaos that is forecast comes to pass, those campaigning for a second referendum will feel validated, if not invigorated. Whilst they might deny this – less they be accused of complacency in this outcome – it is the reality.

The third group to consider are those backing the Prime Minister’s Chequers agreement. By pitching this plan as the last workable option, this group seeks to rally support for the plan. Yet with dissenters on both sides, such a pitch demands we re-evaluate the ground on which we stand: if the Chequer’s agreement is the only deal that can be done, surely the only alternative is a no-deal?

It is the jockeying of hard Brexiteers on the one hand, and advocates of a second referendum on the other, that is propelling this narrative about no-deal. And the media, though rightly evaluating and informing of the consequences of a no-deal, wrongly projects significance onto the meagre odds of such an outcome espoused by those with their own agendas.

Let us remember this Prime Minister’s agenda. Theresa May was a Remainer; I am confident that she desires to be more than just a Brexit Prime Minister. Brexit, in lieu of her legacy, will be an inevitable cornerstone. Yet I see little reason to believe Brexit is all she desires to achieve, and – from the Prime Minister’s perspective – it seems hard to not characterise Brexit as that thing that simply need be achieved before the regular business of governing can begin. No-deal is not an option, because it is almost by definition an admittance of her failure.

This should be obvious. Whilst it is necessary to retain the rhetoric of walking away, the purpose of a negotiation is to reach a negotiated position. Should Theresa May fail to do so, she will have failed in her primary task as Prime Minister, and her remaining in the position will be untenable. Alternatively, consider the reality of a no-deal; a no-deal represents a breakdown in negotiations, not a satisficing of those things which need be negotiated. In other words, sooner or later the UK would have to negotiate with the EU again, over one matter or another. Would this country really entrust a Prime Minister who failed in the primary negotiation to lead secondary or tertiary negotiations?

A no-deal demands Theresa May’s resignation, and if we have learnt anything of Theresa May this past year or more, it is that she is not easily displaced.

I am not sure, either, whether the Conservative party realise the political damage a no-deal would do to them. Whether or not the average Tory voter is inclined to see a no-deal outcome as beneficial, they must surely concede their elected party has failed in its aim. This will be the narrative that dominates the party for the foreseeable future; the failure that calls into question the would-be party of competency.

If there is any entity that I consider more desperate to cling to power than Theresa May, it is perhaps the Conservative party as a whole.

We could play around with a scenario for a moment: that Theresa May, stoic in her resolve, walks away at the eleventh hour claiming such an action was the duty of any good Prime Minister given the villainous proposal on which the EU would not compromise. This, I concede, might score some points in her party. But it would be an obvious change in tone, one that no one would truly believe. It would not mask the sense of failure; it would not protect the party.

I do not deny the possibility of a no-deal, and to do so I think would be foolish. But rather than get caught up in the hysteria of a no-deal apocalypse, let us refocus our attention on the politics of this matter. A no-deal would be disastrous for the Prime Minister, and the Conservative party. Even those who would like to see the former gone will often find themselves exposed to the latter. It is for these reasons I (currently) do not think a no-deal will happen.